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Cairo nuclear blast radius

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Cairo’s core is a dense Nile-side grid. This 15 kt airburst over Tahrir is a downtown scenario; Greater Cairo stretches far beyond these rings along the river and into the desert edge.

Open Cairo in the 3D simulator

Educational estimate only. Blast and heat rings use simplified yield scaling. They ignore terrain, weather, shielding, and weapon design. Casualty counts use WorldPop 2020 residents on an approximately 1 km grid and ignore time of day, commuting, shelter, and evacuation. This is not a targeting or civil-defense tool. About the model.

Aim point: Tahrir Square / downtown Cairo · Weapon: Little Boy (15 kt, 543 m (1,780 ft) optimum airburst)

Ground ranges for Little Boy (15 kt, 543 m (1,780 ft) optimum airburst) in this simulator.
Effect Ground range What the model means
Fireball 266 m (872 ft) Maximum luminous radius
20 psi 839 m (2,751 ft) Heavy destruction
5 psi 1.8 km (1.1 mi) Most buildings collapse
Thermal 2.0 km (1.3 mi) 3rd-degree burns
1 psi 4.2 km (2.6 mi) Windows shatter
Rings scaled to 1 psi. Yellow fireball, red 20 psi, orange 5 psi, gold thermal, blue 1 psi. Not a map of buildings.

Casualty estimate at this pin

People on the WorldPop 2020 grid inside this scenario’s 1 psi ring. Rounded educational estimate, not a forecast.
Estimated deaths 126,294
Estimated injuries 513,105
Residents inside 1 psi 1,893,978

What the rings cover

Inner rings sit on downtown Cairo and the nearby Nile bank. 5 psi covers a slice of the historic core. 1 psi reaches into neighbouring districts and leaves most of Greater Cairo, Giza’s outer sprawl, and the desert cities outside the model.

The pin sits on the downtown square rather than at the Pyramids or New Cairo. The educational question people actually ask is how a small yield sits on the lived city, not on a monument in open land.

WorldPop 2020 will show a high count because central Cairo is continuously inhabited at a fine grain. The estimate still ignores time of day and the difference between a 19th-century block and a tower.

Compare Cairo with Istanbul and Delhi: old capitals where the ‘centre’ is both a tourist map and a real population peak.

Related pages

Istanbul · Delhi · Lagos · Paris

All cities and sites

City index · Historic sites · Weapon yields

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