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City scenario
Istanbul nuclear blast radius
Last updated
Istanbul straddles two continents. This scenario is a 15 kt airburst on the Historic Peninsula, not a strike that ‘covers the Bosphorus.’ Most of the metro sits outside these rings.
Open Istanbul in the 3D simulator
Educational estimate only. Blast and heat rings use simplified yield scaling. They ignore terrain, weather, shielding, and weapon design. Casualty counts use WorldPop 2020 residents on an approximately 1 km grid and ignore time of day, commuting, shelter, and evacuation. This is not a targeting or civil-defense tool. About the model.
| Effect | Ground range | What the model means |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 266 m (872 ft) | Maximum luminous radius |
| 20 psi | 839 m (2,751 ft) | Heavy destruction |
| 5 psi | 1.8 km (1.1 mi) | Most buildings collapse |
| Thermal | 2.0 km (1.3 mi) | 3rd-degree burns |
| 1 psi | 4.2 km (2.6 mi) | Windows shatter |
Casualty estimate at this pin
| Estimated deaths | 66,084 |
|---|---|
| Estimated injuries | 163,868 |
| Residents inside 1 psi | 612,028 |
What the rings cover
Inner rings sit on the Historic Peninsula. 5 psi covers a portion of the old city and the near shore. 1 psi can reach across water in the model and still leave most of the European and Asian sides of the metro untouched.
The pin aims at the Sultanahmet core so the rings read against the Golden Horn and the old city rather than against a generic centroid in the suburbs.
Water is not shielding in this model, but it does change what the disk means: a kilometre of 5 psi can be the distance from Sultanahmet to parts of Eminönü, not the distance to Kadıköy or the airports.
The 3D globe is here to make the strait and the hills obvious. The casualty figure is still a flat WorldPop overlay on simplified radii.
Related pages
Cairo · Paris · London · Tokyo
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